The terror of innovation FOMO – and its simple cure
Great innovation is not only about great ideas, it also execution. Execution, however, is often confused with sheer activity. It pays to think through the business value before starting to run.
I work with dozens of CEOs from the US to Europe to Asia. All of my clients are working in tech (mostly fintech). And all of them complain about the same thing: the lack of execution in their organization. Their employees seem to be busy but work gets stuck all the time.
From employees on the other hand, I hear that they are overwhelmed with the rapid pace of change and a lack of overall direction. They are confused, exhausted and sometimes scared.
What on earth is going wrong?
Lightning speed or death
Every day we are bombarded with news about the most recent tech developments in AI, crypto, quantum computing or nuclear fusion. Everything seems to change at a rapid pace. Experts talk about agile development, rapid prototyping, pivoting or rapid iterations. Businesses live in a constant fear that they will miss an important technology and might be made redundant (the bitcoin crowd once made us belief that bitcoin will kill all banks).
“Larry Summers, now an OpenAI board member, thinks AI could replace ‘almost all’ forms of labor.”
It feels like that we all have to run at maximum speed just to stay put. Eventually, AI will eat us all up!
Elon Musk recently predicted that "AI that is smarter than any human will arrive by the end of next year"!
Already ten years ago the Harvard Business Review predicted that the pace of technology adoption will speed up.[1]
No wonder we are all breathless from the sheer speed of technology!
First mover advantage versus getting it right
One widely held belief in the technology sector is that the first-movers will become market dominant and grab most of the market share, eliminating competitors in the process. It is a variation of Darwin’s theory evolution- the survival of the fittest. Consequently, if you are late, you are doomed. This has created an entire ecosystem of startups, investors, corporate and government pouring billions into new technologies, some of them resulting in massively business outcomes (think Google, Meta and others).
Outliers do happen every now and then. However, in my view they are rare. Successful businesses take longer to build. It can even take decades in extreme cases.
A good example for this is SpaceX. The Netflix documentary “Return to Space” recounts Elon Musk’s SpaceX journey that goes back to 2003. Yes, that is more than twenty years back! The documentary shows all the ups and downs. It strongly shows why execution matters. For SpaceX it was a two decades long painful process.
Ask yourself, is it more important to be a first mover or the first to get it right?
There are countless stories in startup land (think FTX or WeWork) that clearly show that getting it right is more important than being first. It is in particularly true in the fintech ecosystems as big failures will result in a regulatory backlash that currently can be seen in crypto in the US.
How to get ‘shit done’
I spent 16 years in the army, most of it as an officer. One principle I learned also translates into business. It is the “arm waving principle”. When higher ranking officers were present, running around and barking commands at soldiers was perceived as dynamic leadership. I did this several times in tense moments, despite being fully confident that everyone was entirely capable of handling the problem without me waving my arms. However, it made a big difference to my superiors. It made me look good. They loved it!
My suspicion is that there is similar behavior going on in startups and any other type of tech-related organization (probably any business doing “innovation”). Because activity of all sorts looks good to investors, the media and your peers. It might even help startups to raise more funds (no funding needed for sitting still, right).
Thinking quietly about the best way forward might often be a better approach but it looks much less competent.
Working with startups to listed companies, I have seen the same pattern over and over: they hire me to assist them with entering the Swiss market and approach target clients. They want to see commercial traction in a few months (or even faster).
It is about speed.
In reality, it normally takes longer. So what to do?
I have a very simple recommendation that I learned from Amazon-founder Jeff Bezos (he knew a thing or two about scaling with tech). This is what he said:
“Well structured, narrative text is what we're after rather than just text. If someone builds a list of bullet points in word, that would be just as bad as PowerPoint.”
He went on:
“Many, many years ago, we outlawed PowerPoint presentations at Amazon,” Bezos said at the Bush Center’s Forum on Leadership in 2018. “And it’s probably the smartest thing we ever did.”
The important lesson here is not about banning PowerPoint (do so if you like). It is about writing a structured, narrative text to charter a course forward. This has several key benefits:
You have to think through all the aspects of the value proposition by yourself
It takes time to reflect and fact check hypothesis about clients, products or the industry
It allows other people to consider the text and give their feedback at their own pace
A great narrative is important for the leadership, employees as well as employers
(And yes, you may change it in the future)
The client-focused narrative drives growth
Having a conclusive, well thought through and inspiring narrative is an undervalued super power. It takes a lot of work and time but it can have magical effects. It will help companies to get the business model right.
It is about taking your time, taking a breather and thinking through really hard topics carefully.
“The no. 1 thing that has made us successful by far is obsessive compulsive focus on the customer” Jeff Bezos
Here is a great example. One of the best business narratives I came across is by Gustav Söderström from Spotify explaining why they wanted to be become more like Tik Tok.[2] It is a beautifully structured storyline that explains where they started, what they want to achieve and how to get there. And what they want to deliver to clients.
The result?
The stock is up +106% in the last twelve months. Spotify got it right!
[1] https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up